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Forecast of new trend of electric power development in China in 2020

2020-05-26 00:15:33
Times

[cable network news] in the future, the growth rate of China's power supply demand will further slow down. The long-term trend of coal power dominating but declining proportion will be reversed. The new economic normal makes power enter the buyer's market period. The main characteristic of buyer's market is that demand determines supply, while the factors such as the slowdown of economic growth, the adjustment of industrial structure the progress of energy-saving technology make the elasticity coefficient of electric power consumption decrease. This determines that the growth rate of total power supply demand in China will slow down.

The strengthening of resource environment constraints requires the acceleration of adjustment of power structure. In the face of the severe situation of haze control the energy conservation emission reduction goal of reducing carbon emission intensity by 40% - 45% in 2020 compared with that in 2005, it is imperative to adjust the energy structure, power supply structure coal power layout. Thermal power installation needs to be replaced to some extent by clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power photovoltaic.

By 2020, China's Congress will be under the new normal of economic development for a long time, with medium high-speed economic growth, which is the fundamental force driving the increase of power demand. At the same time, the adjustment of industrial structure, the progress of energy-saving technology the cleaning of power structure will slow down the growth of power, especially coal power.

In terms of power demand, it is necessary to achieve the goal of doubling the GDP in 2020 compared with that in 2010 set at the 18th National Congress of the CPC, the GDP will increase at least 6.6% annually in the next six years. In comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the economic growth rate will be able to maintain 6.6% by 2020. The elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption dropped to 0.5-0.620. 20 years ago, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption was between 3.3-4%. It is estimated that by 2020, the power consumption of the whole society will reach 6.7-7 trillion kwh.

In terms of power supply, according to power demand, combined with economic development, industrial policies technical characteristics of the power industry, it is estimated that the installed capacity of thermal power will reach 951 million kilowatts 1079 million kilowatts in 2015 2020, respectively; Among them, the installed capacity of coal power is 854 million KW 944 million KW respectively; affected by the high price of natural gas the poor efficiency of gas power, it is estimated that the installed capacity of gas power is 53 million KW 73 million KW respectively.

Considering the acceleration of energy structure adjustment, it is estimated that in 2015 2020, the installed capacity of hydropower will be 318 million kilowatts 390 million kilowatts respectively, the installed capacity of nuclear power will be 29 million kilowatts 58 million kilowatts respectively. The installed capacity of wind power is 116 million KW 190 million KW respectively. Photovoltaic power stations, especially distributed photovoltaic power stations, are affected by policies, business models, financing, product performance other factors. The installed capacity will reach 36 million kilowatts 90 million kilowatts respectively, slightly lower than the 2020 planning goal. The installed capacity of biomass power generation is 12 million kilowatts 20 million kilowatts respectively. In 2015 2020, the total installed capacity of China is 1.45 billion kw 1.807 billion kw.

Generally speaking, the new trend of electric power development in China will remain stable before 2020.


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